Overcoming Confirmation Bias

Eliza Sapir Koren
3 min readMay 25, 2024

A Manager’s Guide to Clear Thinking

As managers, our decisions shape the direction and success of our teams. Yet, even the best managers can fall prey to confirmation bias — the tendency to favor information that confirms our preconceptions while ignoring evidence to the contrary. This bias can cloud our judgment and lead to poor decision-making.

Understanding Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias happens when we focus on information that supports our existing beliefs and overlook or dismiss evidence that challenges them. It’s a natural human tendency, but one that can be detrimental in a management role. For example, if you believe a team member is underperforming, you might only notice their mistakes and ignore their successes.

The Impact on Management

Allowing confirmation bias to influence your decisions can lead to:

Missed Opportunities: Ignoring innovative ideas that don’t align with your current beliefs.

Ineffective Solutions: Failing to address the root causes of problems because you’re focused on confirming your initial assumptions.

Lower Team Morale: Dismissing team members’ contributions and insights, which can demotivate them.

A Simple Tool to Counter Confirmation Bias: The “Opposite Argument” Technique

To think more broadly and objectively, try the “Opposite Argument” technique. Here’s how it works:

Identify Your Assumption: Start by clearly stating the assumption or belief you have.

Find Contradictory Evidence: Actively seek out information and evidence that contradicts your assumption.

Make the Opposite Argument: Challenge yourself to make a compelling case for the opposite viewpoint.

Putting It into Practice

Let’s say you believe a particular strategy is the best path forward for your project. Here’s how you could apply the Opposite Argument technique:

Identify Your Assumption: “I believe strategy X is the best approach for our project.”

Find Contradictory Evidence: Look for data, feedback, and examples where strategy X didn’t work or where another strategy was more successful.

Make the Opposite Argument: Argue why strategy Y or Z might be better. Consider their advantages, potential success, and how they could address current challenges more effectively.

Benefits of the Opposite Argument Technique

Broader Perspective: It encourages you to consider multiple viewpoints and alternatives.

Better Decision-Making: By weighing different options and evidence, you make more informed and balanced decisions.

Increased Team Involvement: Inviting your team to present opposing viewpoints fosters a culture of open dialogue and critical thinking.

In Conclusion

Confirmation bias is a subtle but powerful force that can lead managers astray. By using the Opposite Argument technique, you can counteract this bias, think more broadly, and make better decisions. Embrace this tool and encourage your team to do the same, paving the way for a more innovative and effective management style.

Remember, great managers don’t just seek to confirm their beliefs — they challenge them to find the best solutions.